polls

Reuters poll: Tennessee Senate race within statistical tie

Democratic candidate and former Gov. Phil Bredesen and Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn shake hands after the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate Debate at The University of Tennessee Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2018, in in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, Pool)

A new Reuters poll shows the Tennessee Senate race within a statistical tie. The online survey has Republican Marsha Blackburn with 47% support, compared with 44% for Democrat Phil Bredesen. The poll’s margin or error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Pollster Ipsos gets a B-plus rating from the FiveThirtyEight.com.

According to a release about the Reuters/Ipsos/Univeristy of Virginia poll conducted between Oct. 4 and Oct. 11:

In the generic ballot question, however, Republicans lead Democrats by 8 points (50% to 42%, respectively), making this close race all the more interesting, as Bredesen appears to be over-performing on multiple partisan measures.

Among likely voters, 53% approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President, as opposed to 46% who disapprove. The top issue in determining the vote in Tennessee is healthcare (17%), followed by immigration (13%) and the economy (12%). On this issue, 40% of likely voters feel that Bredesen has the better policy as opposed to 38% who feel that Blackburn has the better policy.

Likely voters in Tennessee are more likely to report they do not believe the allegations of sexual conduct against Kavanaugh (48%) compared to 35% who do. When asked, 51% of likely voters support Kavanaugh’s nomination while 39% oppose it. On the issue of the Supreme Court, 41% of likely voters report that Blackburn has a better policy, compared to 32% who report that Bredesen has the better policy.

Internal Bredesen polls say Senate race deadlocked

Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, right, speaks during the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate Debate with Democratic candidate and former Gov. Phil Bredesen at The University of Tennessee Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2018, in in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, Pool)

Internal polling by Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen’s campaign suggests the race with Republican Marsha Blackburn remains tight.

According to pollster Garin-Hart-Young, Blackburn had the support of 48% of Tennesseans in two early October polls, while Bredesen had 47%. That’s after more than $20 million in negative attacks aimed at Bredesen or supporting Blackburn. The internal pollster found the same level of support for Bredesen in a September survey, through Blackburn’s support had grown by 3 percentage points since then.

The polling site FiveThirtyEight.com gives Garin-Hart-Young a B-plus rating. The internal Bredesen numbers are at odd with recent public polls that suggest a widening lead for Blackburn (+6 by Fox News, +8 by CBS, +14 by the New York Times).

CBS online poll has Blackburn up by 8 points

Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn speaks at a business forum in Nashville on Aug. 15, 2018 (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new online YouGov poll by CBS News finds Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn leading Democrat Phil Bredesen by 8 percentage points among likely voters in Tennessee, 50%-42%.

The survey was conducted Oct. 2 through Oct. 5 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. YouGov gets a B rating from polling site FiveThirtyEight.com.

In the poll was conducted on the eve of the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, 47% said they would vote to confirm him, while 30% said they wold vote against. Bredesen announced Friday that he would have voted for the confirmation, upsetting some of his more liberal supporters in the process.

The Kavanaugh controversy made 55% of respondents more motivated to vote this year, while 4% said it would make them less so. Forty-one percent said it had no impact.

Among the respondents 61% approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 39% disapproved. Asked what they wanted to see out of their next senator, 25% said they want a conservative who is independent from Trump while another 25% said they want a progressive who is independent from the president. Meanwhile 34% said they want someone who supports Trump as much as they can, while 16% said they are looking for someone who opposes the president as much as they can.

The poll’s sample included 53% who said they tend to vote Republican, 35% Democrats, and 9% independents.

New Fox poll has Blackburn leading Bredesen by 5 points

Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen and Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn speak at the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate Debate at Cumberland University Tuesday, Sept. 25, 2018, in Lebanon, Tenn. (Lacy Atkins/The Tennessean, pool)

A new Fox News poll shows Republican Marsha Blackburn leading Democrat Phil Bredesen by 5 percentage points, 48% to 43%. The last time Fox polled Tennessee its survey showed Blackburn with a 3-point lead.

The poll conducted for Fox by Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research gets an A rating from the polling site FiveThirtyEight.com. The poll of 666 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee had a 17-point lead in the poll over Democrat Karl Dean.

The poll found that Bredesen had a 5-point lead among women, while Blackburn had a 17-point advantage among men. Among white men, her lead is 30 points.

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Online poll has Tennessee’s U.S. Senate race even

Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen and Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn speak at the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate Debate at Cumberland University Tuesday, Sept. 25, 2018, in Lebanon, Tenn. (Lacy Atkins/The Tennessean, pool)

An online NBC/Survey Monkey poll has the Senate race in Tennessee between Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen tied at 42% each among registered voters.

The poll isn’t held in particularly high regard by polling site FiveThirtyEight.com, which gives it a D-minus rating. A previous Axios/Survey Monkey poll on Aug. 23 had Blackburn with a 14-point lead among registered voters.

The latest poll found Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee with 46% support, compared with 35% for Democrat Karl Dean.

The survey found 53% approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing, while 46% disapprove. The highest number of respondents, 26%, said jobs and the economy are their top issue, followed closely by health care at 25%. Next were immigration (15%), education (8%), the environment (7%), and terrorism (5%).

Seventy-eight percent had a positive impression of the state economy, while 22% said it was negative.

Asked whether a pledge to expand Medicaid in the state would affect their vote in November, 40% said it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 24% less likely, and 35% said it would make no difference.

Among other findings:

  • Race relations: 50% said they are staying the same, 33% said they are getting worse, and 16% said they are getting better.
  • Moving confederate monuments: 31% support, 69% oppose.
  • Raising taxes to pay for better infrastructure: 56% willing, 44% unwilling.
  • Raising taxes to pay for better public schools: 55% willing, 44% unwilling.
  • State legislature: 57% approve, 40% disapprove.

 

New poll has Bredesen edging Blackburn 51-49

Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen speaks at a rallt in Nashville on Aug. 20, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new automated poll by Republican polling firm Vox Populi Communications finds Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen with a 51% to 49% advantage among likely voters over the GOP’s Marsha Blackburn.

The poll also found Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee leading Democrat Karl Dean 55% to 45%.

Fifty-five percent said they approved of President Donald Trump’s performance, while 42% said they disapproved (40% said they think Trump should be impeached or forced to leave, while 60% said they disagreed).

Among other findings:

  • 25% approve of cutting entitlement programs like Medicare to balance the budget, 76% oppose.
  • 41% support abolishing ICE, 59% disapprove.
  • 44% say Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are helping the state economy, 56% say hurting.
  • 57% say the support “a single payer healthcare system where the federal government would pay for healthcare for all Americans even if it means raising taxes to pay for it,” while 43% oppose.

The poll included 43% who identify as Republican, 32% as Democrats, and 25% as independents. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight rates NBC/Marist (Bredesen +2) and Fox (Blackburn +3) with an A, and CNN (Bredesen +5) with an A-minus. The site gives Vox (Bredesen +2) a B, with a 77% average of calling races correctly.

 

Bredesen up 5 points in CNN poll

Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen speaks to reporters after at a Farm Bureau speech in Franklin on Aug. 9, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new CNN poll has Democrat Phil Bredesen leading Republican Marsha Blackburn by 5 percentage points.

The poll shows Tennessee voters evenly split on President Donald Trump, with 49% of likely voters approving of his job performance and 48% disapproving. Ninety-two percent of those who disapprove of Trump said they back Bredesen in the Senate race.

The poll found Bredesen was viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 24%. Blackburn’s favorability was 41%, while 39% saw her unfavorably. Among Republicans, 28% have a favorable view of Bredesen, while just 9% of Democrats view Blackburn favorably.

The poll finds Republican Bill Lee leading Democrat Karl Dean by 9 percentage points — a smaller margin than the 13-points found by a recent NBC/Marist poll and the 20 points in last week’s Fox poll.

The top issues identified by those surveyed in the Tennessee poll are:

  • Health care: 27%.
  • Economy: 22%.
  • Immigration: 18%
  • National Security: 10%.
  • Gun policy: 9%.

The poll 723 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 33% Republicans, 26% Democrats, and 42% independents.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight gives CNN pollster SSRS an A-minus rating.

 

NBC/Marist poll has Bredesen leading Blackburn by 2 points

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen speaks at a forum on business issues in Nashville on Aug. 15, 2018 (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new NBC/Marist poll in the Tennessee Senate race has Democrat Phil Bredesen leading Republican Marsha Blackburn by 2 percentage points among likely voters, and 4 points among registered voters. Both are within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll found the governor’s race is far less competitive: Republican Bill Lee was leading Democrat Karl Dean 53%-40% .

Among likely voters, Bredesen was up 48-46, with 5% undecided.  Bredesen’s margin was 48-44 among registered voters.

Bredesen has near unanimous support among Democrats (97%-0%),  compared with Blackburn, who had an 86%-9% advantage among Republicans. Indepedents were leaning toward Bredesen 49%-45%.

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Poll has Bredesen with edge on Blackburn, Black over Boyd

House Speaker Beth Harwell attends a gubernatorial forum in Nashville on Feb. 27, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new automated poll by Emerson College finds Democrat Phil Bredesen with 43% support in the Senate race, compared with 37% for Blackburn. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, 27% said they preferred Diane Black, while 22% supported Boyd, 19% for Lee, and 14% for Harwell.

The survey has a margin of error of a plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in the Senate race and 6.4 points in the governor’s race, so everything is pretty much a statistical tie.

On the Democratic side, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean revived the support of 44% of those polled, compared with 14% for House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh. The margin of error on that race was plus or minus 7.3 points).

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Dean had 39% versus 35% for Black, with 27% undecided. In a matchup with Boyd, Dean had an even slimmer edge: 36%-34, with 30% undecided.

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Poll says Boyd has pulled ahead of Black in GOP gubernatorial primary

While Diane Black led other Republican candidates in a Tennessee Star poll some months ago, the arch-conservative online website reports a new survey this week shows Randy Boyd is now the frontrunner.

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